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July 2018 Housing Affordability Index

At the national level, housing affordability is up from last month but down from a year ago. Mortgage rates rose to 4.75 percent this July, up 14.7 percent compared to 4.14 percent a year ago.

  • Housing affordability declined from a year ago in July moving the index down 8.2 percent from 151.2 to 138.8. The median sales price for a single family home sold in July in the US was $272,300 up 5.2 percent from a year ago.
  • Nationally, mortgage rates were up 61 basis point from one year ago (one percentage point equals 100 basis points).

  • Regionally, the Northeast recorded the biggest increase in home prices at 7.0 percent. The West had an increase of 5.3 percent while the South had a gain of 3.1 percent. The Midwest had the smallest growth in price of 2.5 percent.
  • Regionally, all four regions saw a decline in affordability from a year ago. The Northeast had the biggest drop in affordability of 10.3 percent. The West had a decline of 8.3 percent followed by the South that fell 6.8 percent. The Midwest had the smallest drop of 2.2 percent.
  • On a monthly basis, affordability is up from last month in three of the four regions. The Midwest had biggest gain of 7.9 percent. The West had an incline of 2.6 percent followed by the South with an increase of 2.1 percent. The Northeast had the only dip in affordability of 1.1 percent.
  • Despite month-to-month changes, the most affordable region was the Midwest, with an index value of 183.6. The least affordable region remained the West where the index was 101.2. For comparison, the index was 143.0 in the South, and 142.2 in the Northeast.

  • Mortgage applications are currently down 1.8 percent and mortgage rates are continuing to rise. Credit availability has declined which is a sign that there is constriction on lending standards. Job creation is up as well as new homes sales. As inventory increases, more buyers are likely to come into the housing market. Home prices are up 4.6 percent while median family incomes are only growing 3.2 percent.
  • What does housing affordability look like in your market? View the full data release here.
  • The Housing Affordability Index calculation assumes a 20 percent down payment and a 25 percent qualifying ratio (principal and interest payment to income). See further details on the methodology and assumptions behind the calculation here.

 

 

 

Homes Typically Sold in 27 Days in July 2018

Amid strong demand compared to homes for sale, REALTORS® reported that properties were typically on the market for 27 days, a shorter time compared to one year ago (30 days) and about the same level during the prior month (26 days), according to the  July 2018 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[1]

During the May–July 2018, properties typically sold within one month in 32 states and in the District of Columbia, with properties selling most quickly in the D.C. metro area (17 days), Utah (19 days), Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, Ohio, South Dakota, and Washington (20 days).

Another indicator of how quickly properties are selling is the days on market on Realtor.com.[2]

In 381 out of 500 metro areas tracked by Realtor.com (76 percent) typically stayed on the market for fewer days in July 2018 compared to their median listing time one year ago, including in high price areas such as Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara, CA; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA; Los Angeles-Long Beach Anaheim, CA; San Diego-Carlsbad, CA; Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT ; and New York-Newark, Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA. The decline in days on market in many areas indicates that demand is still broadly strong, with demand outpacing homes for sale.

However, there were fewer metro areas that had year-over-year faster selling times compared to July 2017 (395 metros). Metros where properties typically stayed much longer on the market longer in July 2018 compared to one year ago include Vallejo-Fairfield, CA; Madera, CA; Kennewick-Richland, WA; and Bend-Redmond, OR.  

Scroll down the list of metro areas in the interactive table below or hover over the map to view the median number days properties were listed on Realtor.com in July 2018 and one year ago.

Fastest-Selling Markets July 2018

 

[1] In generating the median days on market at the state level, NAR uses data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have fewer than 30 observations.

[2] To access Realtor.com data, go to https://www.realtor.com/research/data/.

 

Labor Day 2018: Celebrating Hard-Working REALTORS®

Looking at data from the 2018 Member Profile we recognize REALTORS® for their hard work and successes this Labor Day.

  • Sixty-five percent of REALTORS® are licensed as sales agents, 21 percent as brokers, 15 percent as broker associates, and two percent as appraisers.
  • The majority of REALTORS® specialize in residential brokerage at 70 percent, with commercial brokerage making up two percent.
  • The typical member has been in the real estate industry for a median of 10 years, and has been at their present firm for a median of  four years.
  • Ninety-five percent of REALTORS® were certain that they will remain active as a real estate professional during the next two years.
  • In 2017 the typical member had a median of 11 transactions, and a median sales volume of $1.8 million.
  • REALTORS® worked a median of 40 hours per week in 2017, with 65 percent working 40 or more hours per week.
  • Only five percent of members cite real estate as their first career, prior full-time careers include:
    • Management/Business/Financial: 16 percent
    • Sales/Retail: 16 percent
    • Office/Admin support: Nine percent
    • Education: Seven percent
    • Healthcare: Five percent
    • Homemaker: Four percent
  • For 72 percent of REALTORS® real estate is their only occupation. This percentage increases with experience. Eighty-two percent of members with 16 years or more of experience cited real estate as their only occupation.

View the Labor Day infographic and find out more about REALTORS® in the 2018 Member Profile.

Prices of Homes for Sale Typically Increased in 81 Percent of Metro Areas in July 2018

Amid tight supply, home prices are still increasing although at a slower pace. Nationally, the median price of existing homes sold in July 2018 rose to $269,600, up 4.5% from one year ago, but slower than the 5.7% appreciation in 2017.

As another indicator, the median list prices of homes listed on Realtor.com increased in 405 out of 500 metro areas on a year-on-year basis, fewer than the 423 metro areas in July 2017. The number of metro areas with higher year-on-year median list price has been trending down since March 2018 (except in June).

The table below shows the change in median list price on Realtor.com in July 2018 compared to one year ago. Among the largest metro areas, the median list prices declined in July 2018 from one year ago in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (-1.6%), Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (-8.8%), Austin, Round Rock, TX (-3.3%), Greenville-Andersen-Mauldin, SC

(-1.1%), Urban Honolulu, HI (-0.6%), and Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL (-3.2%). Several metro areas in California also had year-on-year declines: Salinas, Sta. Maria-Sta. Barbara, Madera, Truckee-Grass Valley, and Eureka-Arcata-Fortuna.

However, the median list price continues to increase on a year-on-year basis in the high-cost metro areas of California such as Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim (4.3%), San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward (5.7%), San Jose-Sunnyvale, CA (16.5%). The median list price also rose in New York-Newark-Jersey City (11.5%), Atlanta-Sandy Springs, GA (10.3%), and Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (14.4%).

Scroll down the data visualization table below or type in a specific metro area name in the box.

MedianPrice_Table_DB4

The map below shows where median list prices on Realtor.com declined in July 2018 compared to one year ago (blue areas on the map). Scroll down the table or hover over the map to view the historical median list price trend.

MedianPrice_DB2

Tight inventory continues to push up prices of existing homes for sale, although at a moderate pace compared to past years. Nationally, the median price of existing homes sold in July 2018 rose to $269,600, up 4.5% from one year ago (vs. 5.7% appreciation in 2017). Adjusted for inflation, home prices rose 1.5 percent. As of July 2018, the nominal median home price ($269,600) is 17% higher than the bubble-era peak price ($230,400), but the inflation-adjusted price ($184,222) is still 6% below the corresponding inflation-adjusted price of the nominal peak level ($194,963).

 

 

July 2018 Pending Home Sales

  • NAR released a summary of pending home sales data showing that July’s pending home sales pace was down 0.7 percent last month and fell 2.3 percent from a year ago.
  • Pending sales represent homes that have a signed contract to purchase on them but have yet to close. They tend to lead existing-home sales data by 1 to 2 months.
  • All four regions showed declines from a year ago. The South had the smallest dip in pending sales of 0.9 percent. The West had the biggest drop in sales of 5.8 percent. The Northeast fell 2.3 percent followed by the Midwest with a decline of 1.5 percent.
  • From last month, two of the four regions showed inclines in sales. The Midwest region had the smallest gain of 0.3 percent followed by the Northeast, which rose 1.0 percent. The South had a decline of 1.7 percent followed by the West with a drop of 0.9 percent.
  • The U.S. pending home sales index level for the month was 106.2. June’s data was revised up to 107.0.

  • In spite of the decline, this is the pending index’s 51st consecutive month over the 100 level.
  • The 100 level is based on a 2001 benchmark and is consistent with a healthy market and existing-home sales above the 5 million mark.

*Fee varies for homes over 200K. Call for details. 6% used for comparison purposes only. Commissions may be negotiable and are not established by law. Each Office Independently Owned & Operated. The information herein is deemed to be accurate but not guaranteed. All information to be verified.

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